Trump is extending the Russian oil waiver again, even after saying it was ending

The Trump administration has reversed course on Russian oil sanctions, issuing a one-month waiver that allows the continued sale of Russian crude and petroleum products already loaded on tankers at sea. The decision, announced Friday, comes just two days after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin suggested the waiver would not be renewed, leaving markets and allies guessing about Washington's next move.

The so-called "at-sea" waiver has been a recurring feature of U.S. sanctions policy, designed to avoid sudden shocks to global oil markets. Without it, any vessel carrying Russian oil subject to G7 price caps could face penalties, even if the cargo was loaded before sanctions tightened. By extending it, the administration gives buyers and shippers temporary cover to offload existing shipments without violating U.S. rules.

Officials say the reversal is driven by growing instability in the Middle East. With U.S. forces engaged in a standoff against Iran-linked groups in Iraq and the Strait of Hormuz on edge, energy markets have grown jittery. Crude prices jumped more than 5% this week alone. Letting the waiver expire now, one senior official said, would be like "adding gasoline to a fire we're already trying to put out."

Still, the abrupt shift has drawn criticism. Some lawmakers and foreign policy experts argue that repeatedly extending the loophole weakens the overall sanctions regime and lets Russia keep earning billions from oil sales. "Every time we hit pause, we're giving Moscow breathing room," said a Democratic senator familiar with the discussions. European allies, who have pushed for stricter enforcement, expressed quiet frustration.

At the same time, the Treasury Department moved forward with new sanctions targeting Iran-aligned militias in Iraq, naming several groups accused of carrying out attacks on U.S. personnel. The dual actions-easing pressure on Russia's oil trade while tightening it on Iran's regional network-highlight the administration's balancing act as it tries to manage multiple flashpoints without triggering an energy crisis.

Energy analysts say the one-month extension suggests the White House is buying time rather than settling on a long-term approach. "This feels like a stopgap," said one analyst at a Washington think tank. "They're trying to avoid a price spike before summer driving season, but the underlying tensions aren't going away."

The waiver is now set to expire in mid-May, putting the administration back in the spotlight. By then, the situation with Iran could be clearer-and the political cost of another extension harder to ignore.