The Strait of Hormuz is barely moving as Iran seizes ships and the US extends its ceasefire

The Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important oil transit routes, is barely functioning this week after Iran seized at least two commercial vessels in a sharp escalation of regional tensions. The move comes just hours after President Trump extended a US ceasefire with Iran indefinitely, a gesture meant to revive faltering peace talks. But with American naval forces still enforcing a blockade and Iran responding with force, the narrow waterway has ground to a near halt.

Before the conflict, more than 100 ships passed through the strait daily, carrying about a fifth of the world's oil. Now, only a few vessels dare to enter, according to maritime tracking data. The drop reflects deep uncertainty among shipping companies, which are weighing the risks of transiting through a militarized zone where even neutral ships may become targets.

Iran claimed responsibility for seizing the ships, saying they were violating maritime rules and carrying sanctioned goods. The US and several European nations have dismissed those justifications as pretextual, calling the seizures acts of piracy. At least three ships were fired upon Wednesday, with two being taken into Iranian custody. Crew nationalities have not been fully confirmed, but early reports suggest a mix of Filipino, Indian, and Eastern European sailors are being held.

Trump's ceasefire extension, announced Tuesday, was meant to create space for diplomacy. But it came with a catch: the US is maintaining its naval blockade and economic sanctions, which Iran says amount to continued warfare. Analysts say that mixed signal-peace with pressure-has left both sides talking past each other. "You can't extend a ceasefire while still blockading a country and expect them to act like the war is over," said one Middle East expert on background.

The breakdown in trust isn't limited to US-Iran relations. Regional allies, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are urging Washington to clarify its strategy. Both nations rely heavily on the strait for oil exports and have offered to mediate, but so far without success. Meanwhile, Israel-Lebanon tensions have also flared, with Hezbollah launching attacks across the border, further destabilizing the region.

Markets are watching closely. Oil prices ticked up slightly Tuesday and Wednesday, though not yet at crisis levels. But traders are wary. A prolonged closure of the strait could send prices soaring, especially if Iran moves to mine the waterway or targets larger tankers. Insurance rates for ships heading into the Gulf have already spiked.

For now, the window for diplomacy remains open, but narrow. With both Washington and Tehran digging in, the risk of miscalculation is growing. A single incident-a detained crew member harmed, a warship firing first-could ignite a wider conflict no one seems eager to start, but no one seems able to stop.